AGI Greenpac Share Price Target 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030
- Market Cap
- ₹4,624 Cr
- Book Value
- ₹372.20
- Stock P/E
- 12.47
- Dividend Yield
- 0.98%
- ROE
- 15.8%
- ROCE
- 19.6%
- PEG Ratio
- 0.39
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.84
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 6 Aug 2026. Live price via Yahoo Finance.
AGI Greenpac share price today
AGI Greenpac (NSE: AGI) was recorded at ₹709.80 in Gale’s internal universe snapshot dated 6 August 2026. The source row separately stored a ₹4,624 crore market capitalisation and a ₹468.55–₹945.65 52-week range, putting the share about 25% below its high. Source fields can refresh on adjacent cycles; price-based ratios below are normalised to the recorded price, EPS and book value.
AGI is a top-two Indian container-glass producer with additional specialty-glass, PET-container and security-closure businesses. Its five-year sales and profit CAGRs in Gale’s snapshot were 16.17% and 32.37%, while the operating margin was 22.74%. That combination is attractive, but the next phase is much more capital-intensive. A new glass furnace and a ₹1,000-crore aluminium-can project must earn adequate returns without assuming that a disputed acquisition will ever contribute.
What AGI Greenpac actually sells
The group is an institutional packaging supplier, not a consumer brand. Its glass containers hold beverages, food, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and other products. Specialty glass addresses premium and smaller-format applications. AGI Plastek makes PET bottles and products, while AGI Clozures supplies anti-counterfeiting caps and closures. The investor-relations profile reports seven plants and more than 500 institutional customers.
| Business line | Customer need | Economic feature |
|---|---|---|
| Container glass | High-volume bottles and jars | Furnace utilisation and energy cost drive profit |
| Specialty glass | Premium, cosmetic and pharmaceutical formats | Design, quality and mix can support better realisation |
| PET products | Lightweight rigid packaging | Resin prices and intense competition matter |
| Security closures | Tamper evidence and brand protection | Smaller base with customer qualification value |
| Aluminium cans under construction | Beverage packaging in multiple formats | Large new market, commissioning and ramp-up risk |
Container glass remains the profit anchor. Furnaces run continuously, so small utilisation changes can move earnings disproportionately. Adjacent lines deepen customer relationships, but must earn their own cost of capital.
Q1 FY27 combined growth with a steady operating spread
The June 2026 quarter was published after Gale’s market snapshot methodology was set. It is included as operating evidence while the valuation card remains dated 6 August. Consolidated sales increased 14% year on year and operating profit grew faster than revenue. Net profit also advanced, although it was lower sequentially than the unusually strong March quarter.
| Consolidated result | Q1 FY27 | Q1 FY26 | Year-on-year reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹785 Cr | ₹688 Cr | Up about 14% |
| Operating profit | ₹175 Cr | ₹142 Cr | Up about 23% |
| Operating margin | 22% | 21% | Improved by roughly one point |
| Profit before tax | ₹129 Cr | ₹118 Cr | Up about 9% |
| Net profit | ₹99 Cr | ₹89 Cr | Up about 11% |
| Quarterly EPS | ₹15.36 | ₹13.73 | Per-share growth broadly matched PAT |
The result is constructive because growth was not bought with a lower operating margin. It is not enough to extrapolate a full cycle. Product mix, furnace repair, fuel contracts and bottle-price resets can move quarterly profitability. The more useful test is whether the company sustains its conversion earnings while funding two large projects and maintaining cash generation.
FY26 profit quality was mixed but cash conversion strengthened
FY26 revenue rose modestly, while operating profit declined because the margin normalised from an unusually strong prior year. Lower finance expense and higher other income helped profit after tax grow. Cash from operations, however, was strong and gives the result more substance than an earnings-only reading.
| Consolidated metric | FY25 | FY26 | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹2,529 Cr | ₹2,665 Cr | Up about 5% |
| Operating profit | ₹614 Cr | ₹595 Cr | Lower despite sales growth |
| Operating margin | 24% | 22% | Mix and input costs normalised |
| Profit before tax | ₹427 Cr | ₹466 Cr | Below-operating-line items helped |
| Net profit | ₹322 Cr | ₹352 Cr | Up about 9% |
| Cash from operations | ₹429 Cr | ₹571 Cr | Strong conversion ahead of major capex |
| Free cash flow | ₹181 Cr | ₹182 Cr | Broadly stable for the year |
PAT growth did not equal underlying volume growth. Operating profit must resume compounding as new capacity becomes productive, while construction can suppress free cash flow even when reported earnings remain healthy.
Container glass economics reward disciplined utilisation
A glass furnace is designed to run continuously for years between rebuilds. Fuel, labour, depreciation and maintenance do not fall proportionately when output drops. At high utilisation, incremental tonnes can carry attractive contribution; at low utilisation, the same fixed-cost base becomes painful. That operating leverage explains both AGI’s margin opportunity and its risk.
Empty bottles are costly to transport relative to their value, favouring plants near consumption clusters. Qualification and mould development add stickiness, although large buyers can allocate volume among approved suppliers.
| Glass-economics driver | Constructive condition | Warning condition |
|---|---|---|
| Furnace utilisation | Stable demand keeps assets above efficient loading | New supply creates prolonged idle capacity |
| Product mix | Premium beverages, pharma and cosmetics gain share | Commodity bottles dominate dispatches |
| Fuel and power | Cost changes pass through with manageable lag | Gas or power spikes before price resets |
| Cullet use | More recycled glass reduces melting energy | Quality or collection limits the usable share |
| Freight | Plants serve nearby consumption clusters | Distant customers absorb the conversion margin |
Industry consolidation may help pricing, but competition remains
Container glass has high entry barriers: furnaces are expensive, continuous and slow to build; customers require quality consistency; and logistics limit the economic radius of a plant. Changes in ownership, including Piramal’s exit from direct ownership of its former glass business, have made the supplier landscape look more consolidated. That can improve discipline when demand is firm.
PGP Glass continues operating after its ownership change, other domestic producers remain active, and large buyers negotiate professionally. The Competition Commission treated competitive constraints and remedies as substantive in its AGI-HNG analysis. Our thesis allows rational pricing, not monopoly economics.
Fuel is the margin swing factor investors cannot ignore
Glass melting consumes significant energy at very high temperatures. Natural gas, power and alternative fuels therefore affect conversion cost. A supplier may eventually pass inflation to customers, but contract timing creates a lag. When fuel falls, buyers can also seek price reductions.
The percentage operating margin can mislead when bottle prices move with energy. Investors should track EBITDA per tonne, utilisation and cash contribution along with the reported percentage. Stable unit profit through changing fuel prices is better evidence of commercial strength than one quarter of optical margin expansion caused by a lower revenue denominator.
Specialty glass is a mix lever, not a separate certainty
Specialty containers for pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and premium beverages can command better realisations because appearance, mould complexity, batch size and quality requirements matter. AGI had been debottlenecking this platform toward about 200 tonnes per day, with management previously reporting healthy utilisation.
The opportunity is to grow without relying only on commodity bottles. New moulds still require trials, inventory and changeovers, so repeat orders and profit per tonne matter more than a catalogue of premium designs.
Two glass projects create the next capacity step
AGI completed container-glass debottlenecking that management said took capacity to about 1,900 tonnes per day. Combined with specialty glass, the operating glass platform was around 2,100 tonnes per day by the March 2026 period. A new 500-tonne-per-day container-glass facility in Madhya Pradesh is intended to serve North and Central Indian demand and broaden geographic reach.
| Glass project | Reported status or scale | Investment test |
|---|---|---|
| Container debottlenecking | Capacity reached about 1,900 TPD | Incremental tonnes should lift unit economics |
| Specialty-glass expansion | Platform around 200 TPD | Premium demand must support utilisation |
| Madhya Pradesh greenfield | 500 TPD planned | Commission on time and load without price dilution |
| Existing plants | High reported utilisation before expansion | Avoid maintenance deferral at mature furnaces |
The greenfield plant can improve freight economics and release a capacity constraint. It can also arrive during a softer demand period. A good ramp is measured by saleable tonnes, customer approvals and cash return, not the first day a furnace is lit.
Aluminium cans add a second large capital-allocation decision
In July 2026 AGI said construction had begun on a 34-acre beverage-can facility at Hathras, Uttar Pradesh. The company described a ₹1,000-crore investment, two initial lines with 1.6 billion cans of combined annual capability, initial production of about 1.3 billion cans and scope to expand beyond 2 billion. The stated operating target is the first half of 2027, subject to normal project and commissioning risks.
| Can-project feature | Potential advantage | Risk to underwrite |
|---|---|---|
| Multi-format standard, sleek and slim cans | Serves beer, soft drink, energy and ready-to-drink demand | Customer qualification can take time |
| North Indian location | Near large consumption clusters | Local infrastructure and ramp execution |
| 1.6 billion nameplate at launch | Meaningful scale from the start | High fixed cost before utilisation matures |
| Expandable beyond 2 billion | Future growth without another site | Expansion should follow demand, not precede it |
| Cross-selling to beverage customers | Existing relationships lower commercial friction | Glass relationships do not guarantee can allocations |
Aluminium is recyclable and demand can benefit from premium beverages, but the market is not empty. Can manufacturing requires precision, high-speed uptime, metal procurement and strict customer approvals. The project deserves no full earnings credit until commercial production, utilisation and margin are visible.
Capital expenditure will temporarily dominate free cash flow
AGI is moving from debottlenecking toward simultaneous greenfield investments. Construction payments occur before revenue, while commissioning creates start-up costs and inventory. Even a successful plan can therefore depress free cash flow for several reporting periods.
| Cash-flow measure | FY25 | FY26 | Forward implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | ₹429 Cr | ₹571 Cr | Healthy internal funding base |
| Cash used in investing | ₹442 Cr | ₹109 Cr | FY26 was light before the next build cycle |
| Free cash flow | ₹181 Cr | ₹182 Cr | Likely to become more volatile during projects |
| Capital work in progress | ₹103 Cr | ₹195 Cr | Construction base was already rising |
| Cash-conversion cycle | 79 days | 188 days | Inventory and payables distorted year-end efficiency |
The cash-conversion-cycle jump deserves monitoring, though one balance-sheet date can be affected by furnace inventory and supplier timing. The important question is whether operating cash covers a meaningful share of capex without sacrificing maintenance, customer service or balance-sheet flexibility.
The HNG acquisition must be valued at zero until resolved
AGI’s proposed acquisition of Hindusthan National Glass became a prolonged insolvency, competition and court matter. In January 2025 a Supreme Court majority held against AGI’s resolution plan and directed the committee of creditors to reconsider plans meeting the required competition-approval condition. On 16 May 2025, the Court dismissed AGI’s review petition. Subsequent proceedings concerning competition approvals have added further legal complexity.
The safe analytical treatment is simple: AGI does not receive HNG revenue, capacity, synergies or market share in this model. A future binding resolution could change the facts, but newspaper headlines or interim hearings do not. This also keeps the core thesis testable—AGI’s existing operations and announced greenfield projects must justify the valuation without contingent assets.
Gale’s 6 August valuation snapshot
| Snapshot metric | Recorded value |
|---|---|
| Share price | ₹709.80 |
| Market capitalisation | ₹4,624 Cr (source-snapshot row) |
| P/E | 12.47× (price ÷ TTM EPS) |
| Price to book | 1.91× (price ÷ book value) |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.84× |
| PEG ratio | 0.39 |
| EPS, TTM | ₹56.90 |
| Book value per share | ₹372.20 |
| Operating margin | 22.74% |
| ROE | 15.8% |
| ROCE / five-year ROCE | 19.6% / 16.14% |
| Dividend yield | 0.98% |
| Five-year sales / profit CAGR | 16.17% / 32.37% |
The market-cap row and per-share fields may show a slight adjacent-refresh variance; they should not be read as one exchange tick. The multiple is modest relative to historical profit growth and current returns, but project risk, energy sensitivity, HNG uncertainty and possibly above-normal margins matter. A low P/E helps only if earnings survive the construction and ramp period.
How the EPS scenario model works
The target engine starts from the 6 August TTM EPS of ₹56.90. EPS compounds at a different rate in each scenario and receives a different exit P/E. The first forecast period is only the remaining 147/365 of a year from the snapshot to calendar year-end; every later row adds a full year. Outputs are rounded to the nearest ₹5.
| Scenario | EPS growth | Exit P/E | Operational interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5% | 9× | Margin normalises and new projects ramp slowly |
| Base | 10% | 13× | Glass growth offsets construction and start-up costs |
| Bull | 15% | 17× | New capacity loads well and premium mix strengthens |
No path includes HNG. The bear multiple allows for capital intensity and cyclic compression. The base case assumes disciplined execution rather than a large re-rating. The bull case needs evidence from both commercial ramp-up and cash returns; announcements alone do not satisfy it.
AGI Greenpac share price target 2026 to 2030
The gated table shows annual bear, base and bull outcomes from the stated model. These are valuation sensitivities, not forecasts promised by management. Glass utilisation, fuel pass-through, the Madhya Pradesh ramp and the Hathras can plant will decide which earnings path is credible. A legal change concerning HNG should be analysed separately rather than retrofitted into today’s numbers.
What would change our view
| Monitorable | Constructive evidence | Warning evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Container-glass utilisation | High loading with stable unit margin | Volume defended through weak pricing |
| Specialty mix | Repeat premium orders lift profit per tonne | Complexity rises without better economics |
| Fuel pass-through | Timely resets protect conversion spread | Energy inflation sits with AGI for several quarters |
| Madhya Pradesh plant | On-time start and fast customer approvals | Delay, cost overrun or slow utilisation |
| Aluminium cans | Contracted demand and disciplined ramp | Nameplate capacity without customer loading |
| Operating cash flow | Covers maintenance and part of growth capex | Inventory and receivables absorb earnings |
| HNG disclosures | Final, executable legal and regulatory clarity | Interim headlines treated as completed ownership |
Risks investors should separate
- Energy risk: fuel and power can move faster than bottle-price resets.
- Capacity-cycle risk: several industry furnaces starting together can weaken utilisation and pricing discipline.
- Project risk: two greenfield programmes can face delay, overrun and a slow commercial ramp.
- Format substitution: PET, cans and other materials compete with glass in some categories.
- Customer concentration: large beverage and pharmaceutical accounts have meaningful negotiating power.
- Legal-event risk: HNG-related proceedings can create volatile expectations without changing AGI’s existing cash flows.
- Earnings-quality risk: other income and lower finance expense can make PAT look stronger than operating-profit growth.
Should you buy AGI Greenpac at the current price?
AGI combines efficient existing furnaces, credible cash generation and a valuation that does not require an extreme terminal multiple. It is also committing heavily to new glass and can capacity at the same time. Existing investors should focus on unit economics, cash flow and project milestones rather than the HNG news cycle. New investors can use the member valuation panel to phase decisions around execution evidence instead of assuming every announced tonne or can earns a full margin immediately.
FAQ
What is the AGI Greenpac share price target for 2030?
Gale publishes annual bear, base and bull EPS-based sensitivities in the gated table. They use disclosed growth and terminal P/E assumptions and are not guaranteed prices.
Why does AGI Greenpac earn a high glass margin?
High furnace utilisation, customer proximity, premium mix and operating discipline can spread fixed costs across more saleable tonnes. Fuel, repairs and price resets can still change that margin quickly.
Does the target model include Hindusthan National Glass?
No. The transaction has faced adverse and continuing legal and regulatory events. The model gives it no revenue, capacity or synergy value unless a future binding outcome changes ownership and economics.
When will AGI’s aluminium-can plant start?
The July 2026 company announcement targeted the first half of 2027. Investors should verify later construction, trial and customer-approval updates before assuming commercial volume.
What is the most important metric for AGI now?
Operating cash flow after working-capital movement is crucial because glass and can projects require cash before they contribute revenue. Unit margin and utilisation should be read alongside it.
When are AGI Greenpac’s next results?
Use Gale’s results calendar and confirm the final date in the company’s exchange filing.
Related packaging and materials research
- Supreme Industries share price target 2030
- Astral share price target 2030
- Carborundum Universal share price target 2030
- Cera Sanitaryware share price target 2030
Sources and methodology
- AGI Greenpac Q1 FY27 earnings presentation
- AGI Greenpac Q1 FY27 financial results
- AGI Greenpac FY26 earnings presentation
- AGI Greenpac investor-relations archive
- AGI Greenpac aluminium-can project announcement
- Supreme Court order on the HNG-related review petitions
- AGI Greenpac on Screener
This article is independent research and education, not personalised investment advice or a recommendation to transact. Gale is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser. Fuel prices, legal proceedings, project schedules, results and market prices can change quickly. Verify current filings, diversify appropriately and consult a SEBI-registered adviser where necessary.