Berger Paints Share Price Target 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030
- Market Cap
- ₹62,259 Cr
- Book Value
- ₹59.3
- Stock P/E
- 55.0
- Dividend Yield
- 0.75%
- ROE
- 17.3%
- ROCE
- 21.6%
- PEG Ratio
- 5.72
- EV/EBITDA
- 32.2
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 5 Aug 2026. Live price via Yahoo Finance.
Berger Paints share price today
Berger Paints (NSE: BERGEPAINT) has spent decades as Indian paints’ disciplined #2 — a genuine distribution moat of dealer relationships and tinting machines, steadily taken share in decorative, and compounding that made long-term holders rich. Then Birla Opus arrived with a war chest, and the industry’s famously gentlemanly economics stopped being gentlemanly.
That is the tension our universe prices: a real franchise (21.6% ROCE, 75% promoter holding, near-zero debt) inside a sector where a deep-pocketed entrant is buying share with margin. Growth has slipped to single digits for three years while the stock still asks 55× earnings. Tag: watch — in a price war, you watch the war and own the survivor, at a survivor’s price.
The war, and what survives it
Paint moats are physical: 50,000+ dealer counters, tinting machines installed behind each one, painters trained on your systems, and a supply chain that delivers small lots daily. Entrants can discount paint; replicating that lattice takes a decade. Berger’s likely path through the war mirrors every prior entrant wave — share loss at the value end, defence of premium emulsions, and margin pressure that ends when the entrant’s patience does.
Watch-items: industry pricing (discount intensity quarter to quarter), Berger’s volume-versus-value gap, crude-linked input costs, and any sign Opus shifts from share-buying to profitability — the ceasefire signal.
The numbers
From our research universe snapshot (5 Aug 2026):
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ₹62,259 Cr |
| P/E (TTM) | 55.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.2 |
| Operating margin | 15.4% |
| ROE / ROCE | 17.3% / 21.6% |
| Debt to equity | 0.09 |
| Sales CAGR (5y) | 11.8% |
| Profit CAGR (5y) | 9.6% |
| Promoter holding | 75.0% |
| EPS (TTM) | ₹9.70 |
Berger Paints share price target 2026 to 2030
EPS base ₹9.70 (TTM). Bear: the war grinds on and margins stay compressed — 4% growth, multiple at 30×. Base: pricing normalises as the entrant matures — 9% growth at 42×. Bull: war ends early, demand revives, share stabilises — 13% growth at 55×.
| Year | Bear (30×, +4%) | Base (42×, +9%) | Bull (55×, +13%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹303 | ₹444 | ₹603 |
| 2027 | ₹315 | ₹484 | ₹681 |
| 2028 | ₹327 | ₹528 | ₹770 |
| 2029 | ₹340 | ₹575 | ₹870 |
| 2030 | ₹354 | ₹627 | ₹983 |
From ₹534, the base case is ≈ +17% over four and a half years — thin, because 55× already assumes the war ends well. The bear case is −34%. When the risk-reward reads like that, the entry range below isn’t caution; it’s arithmetic.
Reasons to own Berger Paints (at the right price)
- The distribution lattice — dealers, tinting machines, painter loyalty — survives price wars; challengers’ budgets don’t always.
- Decades of execution as the share-gaining #2 against a giant incumbent.
- Near-zero debt and 21.6% ROCE carry it through compressed-margin years.
- Premium emulsions and waterproofing hold pricing better than commodity distemper.
- When industry pricing normalises, today’s suppressed earnings are the springboard.
The risks: Opus’s promoter can fund losses longer than minority shareholders can fund patience, single-digit growth at 55× is a valuation on borrowed time, and crude spikes stack input pain onto pricing pain.
Should you buy at the current price?
The live buy range below is for members — the price at which war casualties become bargains.
FAQ
What is the Berger Paints share price target for 2030? Base case ≈ ₹627 (42× on 9% compounded growth), bear ≈ ₹354, bull ≈ ₹983. Arithmetic above.
How badly has Birla Opus hurt the industry? The entrant’s discounting has compressed sector margins and slowed value growth for every incumbent — Berger’s three years of single-digit growth are the visible cost.
Why not just avoid paints until the war ends? Markets pre-price ceasefires. The time capital is compensated for entering is during the pessimism — at the right price, which is precisely the members’ range below.
When are Berger’s next results? Track the exact date on our results calendar.
This article is research and education, not personalised investment advice. We are not SEBI-registered advisers. Price targets are scenario arithmetic, not promises. Do your own research and consult a registered adviser before acting.