Garden Reach Shipbuilders Share Price Target 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030
- Market Cap
- ₹29,188 Cr
- Book Value
- ₹229
- Stock P/E
- 36.5
- Dividend Yield
- 0.54%
- ROE
- 31.8%
- ROCE
- 43.0%
- PEG Ratio
- 1.01
- EV/EBITDA
- 22.8
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 5 Aug 2026. Live price via Yahoo Finance.
Garden Reach Shipbuilders share price today
Garden Reach Shipbuilders (NSE: GRSE) is the Indian Navy’s second warship yard — Kolkata-built frigates, corvettes, survey vessels and fast patrol craft, with a multi-year order book anchored by the P17A stealth frigate programme. The investment logic mirrors Mazagon Dock one size smaller: naval capex is a decade-length policy commitment, indigenous construction is mandated, and only a handful of yards can execute — a licensed oligopoly with the government as both customer and promoter.
The economics at current execution tempo: 43% ROCE, 31.8% ROE, zero debt, and five-year CAGRs (43.8% sales, 36.2% profit) that track the order book converting. At 36.5× with a PEG of 1.01, our universe tags it wait, with the standing PSU flag: execution timelines slip.
The order-book annuity, PSU edition
Warship revenue is milestone accounting on contracts signed years ahead — visibility private industry rarely enjoys — and the pipeline (next-generation corvettes, export gunboats to friendly navies, green-tug and commercial diversification) extends past 2030. GRSE’s export wins (Bangladesh, Guyana, Germany-bound commercial hulls) add a second demand lane the sector’s bulls undercount. The risks are equally structural: the Navy negotiates hard on margins, and PSU yards deliver on government time.
Watch-items: P17A delivery milestones, next-gen corvette tender outcomes, margin trajectory on fixed-price contracts, and the order-book-to-revenue conversion pace.
The numbers
From our research universe snapshot (5 Aug 2026):
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ₹29,188 Cr |
| P/E (TTM) | 36.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.8 |
| Operating margin | 11.1% |
| ROE / ROCE | 31.8% / 43.0% |
| Debt to equity | 0.00 |
| Sales CAGR (5y) | 43.8% |
| Profit CAGR (5y) | 36.2% |
| Promoter holding | 74.5% (Government of India) |
| EPS (TTM) | ₹69.85 |
GRSE share price target 2026 to 2030
EPS base ₹69.85 (TTM). Bear: execution slips and margins compress — 10% growth, multiple at 22×. Base: the book converts on schedule — 16% growth at 30×. Bull: corvette wins plus exports extend the cycle — 22% growth at 38×.
| Year | Bear (22×, +10%) | Base (30×, +16%) | Bull (38×, +22%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹1,690 | ₹2,430 | ₹3,240 |
| 2027 | ₹1,860 | ₹2,820 | ₹3,950 |
| 2028 | ₹2,045 | ₹3,270 | ₹4,820 |
| 2029 | ₹2,250 | ₹3,795 | ₹5,880 |
| 2030 | ₹2,475 | ₹4,400 | ₹7,175 |
From ₹2,547, the base case is ≈ +73% over four and a half years; the bear is −3%. Defence order books make even the bear case gentle — the range below adds the discipline the PSU flag demands.
Reasons to own GRSE (at the right price)
- A licensed naval oligopoly — indigenous warship mandates guarantee the customer.
- Multi-year order book with milestone-revenue visibility.
- 43% ROCE, zero debt: the state pays advances; the yard earns on execution.
- Export navies (Bangladesh, Guyana, European commercial) open a second lane.
- PEG 1.01 — the defence re-rating hasn’t fully reached the #2 yard.
The risks: government timelines slip habitually, fixed-price contracts squeeze margins when steel moves, and PSU status caps strategic flexibility.
Should you buy at the current price?
The live buy range below is for members — the defence annuity at yard-two prices.
FAQ
What is the GRSE share price target for 2030? Base case ≈ ₹4,400 (30× on 16% compounded growth), bear ≈ ₹2,475, bull ≈ ₹7,175. Arithmetic above.
How does GRSE differ from Mazagon Dock? Mazagon builds destroyers and submarines (the biggest-ticket platforms); GRSE specialises in frigates, corvettes and patrol craft, with stronger export traction relative to size. Same policy tailwind, smaller hulls.
Why is the operating margin only 11%? Naval contracts price on cost-plus-thin-margin structures; the return magic happens on capital (customer advances fund work-in-progress), hence 43% ROCE on modest margins.
When are GRSE’s next results? Track the exact date on our results calendar.
This article is research and education, not personalised investment advice. We are not SEBI-registered advisers. Price targets are scenario arithmetic, not promises. Do your own research and consult a registered adviser before acting.