Godfrey Phillips Share Price Target 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030
- Market Cap
- ₹36,481 Cr
- Book Value
- ₹398
- Stock P/E
- 26.7
- Dividend Yield
- 2.14%
- ROE
- 23.4%
- ROCE
- 30.3%
- PEG Ratio
- 0.78
- EV/EBITDA
- 19.5
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 5 Aug 2026. Live price via Yahoo Finance.
Godfrey Phillips share price today
Godfrey Phillips India (NSE: GODFRYPHLP) sells Marlboro in India under licence from Philip Morris, alongside its own Four Square and Red & White brands — and it has been growing cigarette volumes at rates the industry giant would envy, with 20%+ sales CAGR and 34% five-year profit CAGR. Tobacco economics do the rest: minimal capital needs, 30% ROCE, pricing power, and a 2.1% dividend yield.
At 26.7× with a PEG of 0.78, the stock trades at a permanent discount to FMCG peers — the sin-stock discount, deepened by a history of promoter-family disputes. Our universe tags it wait, with an honest note: the discount is simultaneously the opportunity and the ceiling.
Marlboro’s quiet compounding
The growth engine is share gain: Marlboro’s brand pull in a category where advertising is banned makes distribution and trademark the whole game, and Godfrey Phillips has been taking premium-segment share steadily. Taxation is the perennial swing factor — GST stability in recent years let volumes and pricing both work — and the chewing/leaf-export businesses add ballast.
Watch-items: GST council actions on tobacco (the single biggest variable), the promoter-family situation (disputes have flared before; a 0.21% pledge exists), Philip Morris licence terms, and ESG-driven institutional selling that caps the multiple.
The numbers
From our research universe snapshot (5 Aug 2026):
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ₹36,481 Cr |
| P/E (TTM) | 26.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.5 |
| Operating margin | 23.4% |
| ROE / ROCE | 23.4% / 30.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.04 |
| Sales CAGR (5y) | 20.4% |
| Profit CAGR (5y) | 34.4% |
| Promoter holding | 72.6% (0.21% pledged) |
| EPS (TTM) | ₹87.59 |
Godfrey Phillips share price target 2026 to 2030
EPS base ₹87.59 (TTM). The 34% CAGR won’t repeat; scenarios normalise. Bear: a punitive GST hike lands — 7% growth, multiple at 17×. Base: taxation stays rational, share gains continue — 13% growth at 23×. Bull: premiumisation accelerates — 18% growth at 29×.
| Year | Bear (17×, +7%) | Base (23×, +13%) | Bull (29×, +18%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹1,595 | ₹2,275 | ₹2,995 |
| 2027 | ₹1,705 | ₹2,570 | ₹3,535 |
| 2028 | ₹1,825 | ₹2,905 | ₹4,175 |
| 2029 | ₹1,950 | ₹3,285 | ₹4,925 |
| 2030 | ₹2,090 | ₹3,710 | ₹5,810 |
From ₹2,337, the base case is ≈ +59% over four and a half years plus the 2.1% yield. The bear case is −11% — even tax shocks struggle to hurt a 27× tobacco franchise for long, because pricing eventually passes them through. The range below adds the margin of safety anyway.
Reasons to own Godfrey Phillips (at the right price)
- Marlboro’s India licence — the premium brand in a category where brands are everything.
- 34% five-year profit CAGR at PEG 0.78: growth this cheap exists only behind stigmas.
- Tobacco cash economics: 30% ROCE, trivial capex, rising dividends.
- Advertising bans freeze the competitive order — the moat is regulatory.
- Volume growth while global tobacco shrinks — India’s premium segment is expanding.
The risks: one GST council meeting can reprice the stock overnight, promoter-family disputes have a history of resurfacing, and the ESG discount means the multiple may never re-rate — returns must come from earnings alone.
Should you buy at the current price?
The live buy range below is for members — where the sin discount overshoots into free money.
FAQ
What is the Godfrey Phillips share price target for 2030? Base case ≈ ₹3,710 (23× on 13% compounded growth), bear ≈ ₹2,090, bull ≈ ₹5,810. Arithmetic above.
Does Godfrey Phillips own the Marlboro brand? No — it manufactures and distributes Marlboro in India under licence from Philip Morris International. The licence relationship is decades old and central to the premium growth story.
Why is the P/E so low despite 34% profit growth? The sin-stock discount: many institutions cannot own tobacco regardless of returns, and governance history adds its own haircut. That structural discount is why the PEG sits below 0.8.
When are Godfrey Phillips’ next results? Track the exact date on our results calendar.
This article is research and education, not personalised investment advice. We are not SEBI-registered advisers. Price targets are scenario arithmetic, not promises. Do your own research and consult a registered adviser before acting.