Gravita India Share Price Target 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030
- Market Cap
- ₹12,465 Cr
- Book Value
- ₹332.48
- Stock P/E
- 31.8
- Dividend Yield
- 0.38%
- ROE
- 16.8%
- ROCE
- 17.0%
- PEG Ratio
- 1.40
- EV/EBITDA
- 24.1
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 6 Aug 2026. Live price via Yahoo Finance.
Gravita India share price today
Gravita India (NSE: GRAVITA) appeared at ₹1,732.10 in Gale’s internal stock-universe snapshot on 6 August 2026. That price implied a market capitalisation of ₹12,465 crore. The recorded 52-week low and high were ₹1,295.10 and ₹1,875.40, placing the share about 7.6% below the high. Live prices in the quote widget can change; every ratio and scenario on this page uses the fixed snapshot date unless another reporting period is stated.
Gravita has built an unusually fast-growing formal recycling network around lead, then extended it into aluminium, plastics, rubber, copper and a lithium-ion pilot. That story has substance: five-year sales and profit CAGRs in Gale’s data were 25% and 46%. It also has a complication. Recycling is a spread business with an internal snapshot operating margin of only 9%, so procurement, hedging, inventory and working-capital discipline matter as much as headline revenue growth.
Recycling economics are about spread, not metal direction
A recycler buys scrap, processes it and sells refined metal, alloys or other value-added products. If lead or aluminium prices rise, both purchases and sales can increase even when physical throughput barely changes. A higher reported top line is therefore not automatically a better result. The company must protect the difference between its realised selling price and its input, conversion, freight, finance and compliance costs.
| Economic lever | What Gravita does | Investor question |
|---|---|---|
| Scrap sourcing | Uses owned yards and a broad global collection network | Can material be secured at a predictable discount? |
| Metal-price exposure | Uses back-to-back hedging for much of the cycle | Do timing and basis differences remain controlled? |
| Processing | Converts scrap into refined and customised products | Is yield improving without quality slippage? |
| Product mix | Raises value-added and non-lead contribution | Does the mix lift profit per tonne? |
| Geography | Operates near procurement and consuming markets | Are logistics savings greater than overseas complexity? |
This framing prevents a common analytical error: predicting earnings from the direction of metal prices. Gravita can earn well in a stable or falling market if it locks spreads and turns inventory quickly. It can struggle in a rising market if scrap becomes scarce, hedges do not match physical positions, or extra working capital raises finance cost.
Q1 FY27 delivered growth with a thinner margin
Gravita’s July 2026 investor presentation reported strong year-on-year expansion after strategic capacity additions and the copper acquisition. Revenue rose 42%, adjusted EBITDA grew 29% and profit after tax increased 14%. The slower profit growth is as important as the faster sales line.
| Company-reported Q1 measure | Q1 FY26 | Q1 FY27 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹1,040 Cr | ₹1,475 Cr | 42% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ₹111.70 Cr | ₹144.54 Cr | 29% |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 10.74% | 9.80% | Lower by 94 bps |
| Profit after tax | ₹93.26 Cr | ₹106.39 Cr | 14% |
| PAT margin | 8.97% | 7.21% | Lower by 176 bps |
| Quarterly capex | — | About ₹30 Cr | Expansion continued |
Adjusted EBITDA in the presentation accounts for currency and metal hedging and expected-credit-loss adjustments, so it should not be mixed casually with the operating-profit line on a data aggregator. The direction is nevertheless clear: the business became larger, while the percentage of revenue retained as profit fell. Investors need to see whether copper integration and richer products can reverse that dilution.
Volume quality matters more than a growth slogan
Management’s Vision 2030 outlines ambitious volume and profit goals. The plan is to expand existing recycling lines, add materials, lift the share of customised products and maintain strong returns on new projects. Ambition is useful for capacity planning, but forecasts should not be treated as contracted earnings.
| Vision 2030 priority | Management aspiration | What would validate it |
|---|---|---|
| Volume growth | About 20–25% CAGR | Utilisation and scrap supply rise together |
| Profitability growth | About 30–35% | Profit grows faster than capital employed |
| Return on invested capital | Sustain around 25% | Post-acquisition returns recover toward the goal |
| Value-added products | Roughly 45–50% of revenue | Higher profit per tonne and repeat customers |
| Non-lead businesses | Roughly 35–40% contribution | Copper, aluminium and other lines scale profitably |
| Renewable-power use | About 25–30% | Lower energy intensity and reliable supply |
The central risk is pursuing volume before procurement is ready. Recycling plants do not create scrap. A new furnace without a dependable collection channel may operate below capacity or bid too aggressively for feedstock. Gravita’s network is therefore a more important asset than the installed-tonnage announcement by itself.
Procurement is the real operating moat
The July presentation described more than 2,200 collection touchpoints and 39 owned yards across major regions, with over 330,000 tonnes of scrap collected. Facilities positioned near supply can reduce freight, shorten inventory transit and make smaller local sources economical. The network also creates market intelligence that a single central buyer would struggle to replicate.
| Procurement region | Presentation evidence | Strategic relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Asia | 1,200+ touchpoints and six owned yards | Largest collection base and proximity to Indian plants |
| Africa | 900+ touchpoints and 32 owned yards | Deep local sourcing built over many years |
| Europe | 60+ touchpoints and one owned yard | Access to regulated collection markets |
| Americas | 40+ touchpoints | Feeds regional and export opportunities |
| Australia | Five-plus touchpoints | Small but broadens optionality |
Scale does not eliminate procurement risk. Regulations, informal competition, export restrictions, local currency and counterparty quality can change available spread. A useful quarterly signal is profit per tonne after hedging rather than scrap tonnage alone. Rising collection at falling unit economics would be growth without value creation.
Hedging protects price risk, not every risk
Gravita describes a back-to-back mechanism designed to lock metal margins between physical purchases and sales. That is sensible because the investment case should rest on collection and processing skill, not a directional bet on lead. Yet no hedge is perfect. Contract quantities, grades, delivery dates and reference prices can differ from the physical inventory.
Currency adds another layer when scrap is sourced in one country, processed in another and sold in a third. Even when the metal exposure is matched, freight, working-capital interest and local-currency costs can move. Investors should look for small, explainable hedge adjustments and stable cash conversion. A large recurring gap between adjusted and reported profit would deserve scrutiny.
Lead remains the base while diversification changes the mix
Lead recycling supplied Gravita’s original scale, operating know-how and customer relationships. Batteries create a recurring replacement stream, and formalisation can move more scrap toward compliant processors. However, concentration in one metal exposes the group to feedstock competition and end-market changes. The move into aluminium, plastics, rubber, copper and lithium is intended to widen both supply and demand.
| Vertical | Role in the portfolio | Main execution risk |
|---|---|---|
| Lead | Core cash and operating platform | Scrap competition and spread pressure |
| Aluminium | Extends non-ferrous capabilities | Alloy qualification and procurement depth |
| Plastics | Uses recovered polymer streams | Quality consistency and lower unit value |
| Rubber | Adds another circular material | Early-stage scale and process economics |
| Copper | Large adjacent value-added market | Acquisition integration and working capital |
| Lithium-ion pilot | Builds future technical capability | Technology, feedstock and uncertain scale economics |
Diversification is valuable only when common skills transfer. Procurement, metallurgy, hedging, environmental compliance and customer approvals can be shared. A collection of unrelated plants with different economics would add complexity rather than a moat.
The RMIL acquisition changes the financial profile
Gravita acquired 99.44% of Rashtriya Metal Industries Limited for ₹561.84 crore, entering copper and copper-alloy products. The official presentation states that RMIL has 31,200 tonnes of annual capacity and reported FY26 revenue of ₹1,040 crore with EBITDA of ₹82 crore. Its products provide access to segments such as electrical equipment and defence.
| RMIL consideration | Potential benefit | Due-diligence question |
|---|---|---|
| Established copper-alloy plant | Faster entry than a greenfield build | What maintenance and expansion capex is required? |
| Existing customer base | Cross-selling and product qualification | How concentrated are customers and products? |
| Scrap-to-alloy capability | Better input control and value addition | Can sourcing be integrated with Gravita’s network? |
| FY26 EBITDA margin near 8% | Immediate operating contribution | Can synergies lift margin after financing cost? |
| Purchase price of ₹561.84 Cr | Strategic scale in copper | Does post-tax cash return exceed the cost of capital? |
The transaction also explains why historical leverage and return ratios need careful interpretation. Debt, assets and working capital rose as the group added RMIL. A lower near-term ROCE may be reasonable during integration, but it should not become a permanent excuse. Management’s own disciplined-capital framework sets a demanding benchmark for new projects.
Capacity expansion needs scrap, customers and cash
The company presentation reported total production capacity of about 4.76 lakh tonnes as of 27 July 2026, excluding internal rubber capacity, and plans more than 8 lakh tonnes by FY29. During Q1, Gravita expanded Phagi lead-recycling capacity by 40,500 tonnes to 75,819 tonnes. Mundra also received London Metal Exchange brand listing for its lead metal, widening potential market access.
Capacity can support growth only if three constraints move together. Scrap must be available at an economic price, customers must accept the output, and the balance sheet must fund inventory between purchase and collection. LME listing supports quality credibility and deliverability; it does not guarantee a margin. The preferred expansion path raises utilisation gradually and preserves returns rather than commissioning plants faster than the collection network can feed them.
Working capital is now the key financial watch
Historical growth was accompanied by attractive profit compounding, but FY26 cash-cycle figures weakened as acquisition and expansion changed the balance sheet. That is where the next phase must prove itself.
| Consolidated measure | FY25 | FY26 | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹3,869 Cr | ₹4,265 Cr | Core business continued growing |
| Net profit | ₹313 Cr | ₹378 Cr | Profit rose faster than sales |
| Operating cash flow | ₹282 Cr | ₹169 Cr | Cash lagged accounting earnings |
| Free cash flow | ₹175 Cr | Negative ₹46 Cr | Expansion absorbed cash |
| Inventory days | 71 | 109 | More material was held |
| Cash-conversion cycle | 92 days | 139 days | Funding requirement increased |
| Borrowings | ₹286 Cr | ₹736 Cr | Acquisition and growth raised leverage |
One year does not prove deterioration, particularly when a strategic acquisition closes near year end. It does create a clear test. Inventory days should normalise as RMIL integrates and new capacity ramps, while operating cash flow should move closer to profit. Otherwise, fast growth can require repeated external funding and dilute the return shareholders actually receive.
Regulation is a tailwind with compliance obligations
Extended producer responsibility, vehicle scrappage rules, GST formalisation and tighter environmental enforcement can redirect material from informal processors to organised recyclers. OEMs also value traceability and reliable quality. These trends support Gravita’s collection network and accredited facilities.
Formalisation is not a free subsidy. Pollution controls, worker safety, emissions monitoring, hazardous-material transport and remediation require continual capital and operating discipline. Lead processing in particular carries serious health and environmental responsibility. A compliance incident could stop a plant, damage customer approvals and overwhelm several quarters of profit. ESG claims should therefore be tested against audited disclosures and regulatory outcomes, not only tonnes recycled.
Gale’s 6 August snapshot
| Snapshot metric | Recorded value |
|---|---|
| Share price | ₹1,732.10 |
| Market capitalisation | ₹12,465 Cr |
| P/E | 31.8× |
| Price to book | 5.08× |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.1× |
| PEG ratio | 1.40 |
| EPS, TTM | ₹53.11 |
| Book value per share | ₹332.48 |
| ROE / five-year ROE | 16.8% / 24.0% |
| ROCE | 17.0% |
| Debt to equity | 0.30 |
| Dividend yield | 0.38% |
| Promoter holding / pledge | 55.88% / nil |
The valuation already recognises superior historical growth. A 31.8-times P/E can be sustained if earnings compound and capital efficiency recovers after the RMIL purchase. A 5.08-times book multiple is less forgiving when ROE is below its five-year average. The market is paying for execution of Vision 2030 before that programme is complete.
How the scenario model works
The model begins with the internal TTM EPS of ₹53.11, compounds it under three growth paths and assigns a different terminal P/E. The first horizon is not a full year: from 6 August to calendar year end there are 147 days, so the 2026 calculation uses 147/365 of annual growth. Each subsequent year adds a full period, and outputs are rounded to the nearest ₹5.
| Scenario | EPS growth | Exit P/E | Required operating outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8% | 22× | Spreads compress and integration takes longer |
| Base | 16% | 30× | Core growth continues and cash conversion improves |
| Bull | 23% | 36× | Diversification scales with high returns and better mix |
Even the bull growth rate is below the snapshot’s five-year profit CAGR. That reduces dependence on an exceptional historical period continuing unchanged. The bear multiple recognises that a spread business with rising working capital can de-rate sharply. The base case requires proof in cash flow, not just revenue.
Gravita India share price target 2026 to 2030
Members can view the annual bear, base and bull calculations above. These paths are not management guidance or certainty bands. They show how EPS growth and the valuation multiple interact. The bull case demands strong copper integration, more value-added output and disciplined capital use. The bear case is a reminder that rapid volume growth does not guarantee shareholder returns when spreads and cash conversion weaken.
What we would monitor every quarter
| Monitorable | Healthy evidence | Warning evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Profit per tonne | Stable or rising after hedges | Volume grows while unit profit falls |
| Value-added mix | Repeat customers and better spread | Mix label rises without margin benefit |
| RMIL integration | Cash contribution and procurement synergies | Debt and inventory rise without returns |
| Working capital | Inventory and debtor days normalise | CFO repeatedly trails profit |
| Capacity utilisation | Scrap supply matches commissioning | Plants compete internally for feedstock |
| ROIC and ROCE | Recover as projects mature | Capital employed compounds faster than EBIT |
| Compliance | Clean audits and uninterrupted approvals | Environmental or safety action |
Risks investors should not bundle together
- Scrap-supply risk: formal processors and new capacity can compete for the same feedstock.
- Spread and hedge risk: physical grades and timing may not perfectly match exchange contracts.
- Integration risk: RMIL adds copper expertise alongside debt, people and working-capital complexity.
- Country risk: overseas yards face currency, tax, political and compliance differences.
- Environmental risk: lead and other hazardous materials require exacting controls and can create large liabilities.
- Capital-allocation risk: capacity announcements may outrun utilisation or return on investment.
- Valuation risk: high historical growth is already reflected in the market multiple.
Should you buy Gravita India at the current price?
Gravita owns a meaningful procurement network, process knowledge and a credible record of expanding formal recycling. The Q1 growth and new copper platform widen the opportunity, while lower margins and a longer cash cycle show the cost of that expansion. Existing investors should judge the business on profit per tonne, operating cash and post-acquisition returns. New investors can use the member valuation panel to stagger decisions rather than treating circular-economy demand as a reason to ignore entry price.
FAQ
What is the Gravita India share price target for 2030?
The gated table presents bear, base and bull annual scenarios derived from TTM EPS, explicit growth rates and terminal P/E multiples. They are valuation sensitivities, not guaranteed prices.
Why can Gravita’s revenue rise faster than profit?
Metal value passes through sales, and newly acquired operations can add a large top line at a different margin. Procurement spread, hedging, finance cost and product mix determine how much revenue becomes profit.
What does the RMIL acquisition add?
It brings Gravita into copper and copper-alloy manufacturing through an operating business with customers, capacity and value-added products. The remaining test is whether integration produces cash returns above the acquisition’s funding cost.
Is higher recycling capacity always positive?
No. Plants need economical scrap, customer approvals, utilisation and working capital. Capacity added ahead of feedstock can lower returns even when the long-term demand narrative is favourable.
What is the most important Gravita metric now?
Operating cash flow relative to profit, together with inventory days, will show whether expansion is self-funding or increasingly dependent on debt and equity.
When are Gravita India’s next results?
Check Gale’s results calendar and verify the final date in the company’s exchange announcement.
Related materials and industrial research
- Himadri Speciality Chemical share price target 2030
- PI Industries share price target 2030
- Carborundum Universal share price target 2030
- Supreme Industries share price target 2030
Sources and methodology
- Gravita India Q1 FY27 investor presentation
- Gravita India Q1 FY27 consolidated results
- Gravita India investor-relations hub
- Gravita India financial-results archive
- Gravita India on Screener
This article is independent research and education, not personalised investment advice or a recommendation to transact. Gale is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser. Metal spreads, regulations, currency, acquisitions and market prices can change rapidly. Verify current filings, diversify appropriately and consult a SEBI-registered adviser where necessary.