ICRA Share Price Target 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030
- Market Cap
- ₹4,988 Cr
- Book Value
- ₹1,222.80
- Stock P/E
- 25.4
- Dividend Yield
- 1.36%
- ROE
- 16.72%
- ROCE
- 23.04%
- PEG Ratio
- 1.40
- EV/EBITDA
- 16.08
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 6 Aug 2026. Live price via Yahoo Finance.
ICRA share price today
ICRA Ltd (NSE: ICRA) was recorded at ₹5,092.40 in Gale’s internal 6 August 2026 snapshot, giving it a market capitalisation of ₹4,988 crore. The dated 52-week range was ₹4,712.50 to ₹6,734, leaving the share about 24% below its high. The live quote above may change; the operating ratios and model below stay fixed to the research date so movements in price are not mistaken for changes in the business.
ICRA owns an unusually attractive domestic ratings franchise, but it is no longer only a rater. Research, outsourced analytics, risk software and regulatory technology now contribute 44% of group revenue. FY26 revenue grew 20.4%, helped by strong ratings growth and the acquisition of Fintellix. Profit after tax grew much more slowly, because integration, investment and a labour-code charge absorbed part of the operating gain. The stock case therefore rests on two questions: can ratings retain their high incremental margin, and can analytics growth become more profitable after acquisition costs settle?
What ICRA actually does
The group reports two segments. Ratings and ancillary services include credit ratings and ESG ratings. Research and analytics includes research, data analytics and risk solutions delivered through ICRA Analytics, D2K Technologies and the newly acquired Fintellix platform. ICRA is ultimately controlled by Moody’s Corporation through two promoter entities.
| FY26 group revenue composition | Share | Economic character |
|---|---|---|
| Ratings and ancillary services | 55.98% | Reputation-led, regulated and highly scalable |
| Research and analytics | 44.02% | People, data and software-led; more global and execution-intensive |
The two businesses reinforce each other but should not be valued as if their economics are identical. Ratings carry regulatory accreditation, surveillance income and trust accumulated over decades. Analytics can grow faster and reach overseas clients, but faces project cycles, wage costs, automation pressure and acquisition risk. A blended group multiple must acknowledge both the moat and the lower-margin work required to diversify it.
FY26 growth was strong, but profit conversion lagged
Consolidated revenue from operations rose from ₹498.02 crore to ₹599.51 crore in FY26. Profit after tax increased from ₹171.20 crore to ₹182.53 crore, and reported EPS moved from ₹176.7 to ₹188.6. The 20.4% revenue expansion versus 6.6% PAT growth is the year’s most important contrast.
| Consolidated measure | FY25 | FY26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue from operations | ₹498.02 Cr | ₹599.51 Cr | +20.4% |
| Profit after tax | ₹171.20 Cr | ₹182.53 Cr | +6.6% |
| Reported EPS | ₹176.7 | ₹188.6 | +6.7% |
| Live rated issuers | — | 2,743 | ₹105 trillion of rated debt |
| Research reports published | — | 596 | Broad sector coverage |
The annual report also identifies a ₹6.92 crore one-time impact from new labour codes at the consolidated level. Normalising a one-off helps explain the year, but does not eliminate the need to test underlying costs. Fintellix was consolidated only from 17 October 2025, so FY26 contains less than a full year of its revenue and expenses. FY27 comparisons will reveal more about the acquired business’s organic trajectory and margin.
Ratings is the moat and the profit engine
External revenue from ratings and ancillary services increased 14.2% to ₹335.61 crore. Segment profit rose 25.9% to ₹126.40 crore, faster than revenue, illustrating the operating leverage in a knowledge franchise once analyst capacity and systems are in place.
| Ratings segment | FY25 | FY26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| External revenue | ₹293.98 Cr | ₹335.61 Cr | +14.2% |
| Segment result | ₹100.39 Cr | ₹126.40 Cr | +25.9% |
| Result as share of external revenue | 34.1% | 37.7% | Margin expanded |
The moat is credibility. Issuers pay the fee, but investors and lenders must trust the opinion. Regulatory accreditation limits entry, while historical default studies, sector expertise and surveillance processes take years to build. Moody’s affiliation adds methods and global technical support. None of this makes earnings risk-free: rating mandates follow debt issuance, pricing can become competitive, and one severe failure of judgement can damage a brand more quickly than years of ordinary success can repair it.
Debt-market deepening is the structural opportunity
India needs more bond financing for infrastructure, financial companies and corporate capital expenditure. Every rated instrument can generate an initial assignment fee and ongoing surveillance work. Securitisation, bank-loan ratings, structured finance and newer ESG products broaden that opportunity beyond plain corporate bonds.
ICRA’s FY26 scale—2,743 live issuers and ₹105 trillion of rated debt—shows an established platform rather than an early entrant. Yet revenue will not move in a straight line. Higher market yields can delay issuance, bank lending can substitute for bonds and regulation can change which instruments require ratings. The correct long-term thesis is market deepening across cycles, not a forecast that every quarter must benefit.
| Ratings demand driver | Positive mechanism | Cyclical or structural risk |
|---|---|---|
| Corporate bonds | More issuers and surveillance mandates | Issuance pauses when yields rise |
| NBFC funding | Diversified liability needs | Funding stress can cut volumes |
| Securitisation | Pool ratings and repeated transactions | Sensitive to loan growth and regulation |
| Infrastructure finance | Long-tenor capital requirements | Project delays and policy uncertainty |
| ESG ratings | New disclosure and investor requirements | Standards and commercial adoption still evolving |
Research and analytics grew faster, with lower leverage
Research and analytics external revenue grew 29.3% to ₹263.90 crore, but segment profit rose only 5.7% to ₹64.47 crore. The implied result margin fell from about 29.9% to 24.4%. Acquisition timing, integration and investment are part of the explanation; competitive and technological pressure remain possible explanations until the margin recovers.
| Research and analytics segment | FY25 | FY26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| External revenue | ₹204.04 Cr | ₹263.90 Cr | +29.3% |
| Segment result | ₹61.00 Cr | ₹64.47 Cr | +5.7% |
| Result as share of external revenue | 29.9% | 24.4% | 550-bps compression |
This segment analyses more than 48,000 entities’ financial statements annually and serves financial institutions with data operations, financial intelligence, ESG analytics and digital transformation. It provides diversification from Indian issuance cycles and can earn foreign-currency revenue. It also competes in a market where clients continually press for productivity and where generative AI can automate parts of traditional research.
Fintellix is the largest new variable
ICRA acquired 98.75% of Fintellix India on 17 October 2025 for total consideration of ₹249.06 crore, or ₹230.94 crore net of cash acquired. Fintellix develops risk management, supervisory technology and data-analytics products for banks, NBFCs and regulators, with subsidiaries in South Africa and the United States.
The logic is credible: financial institutions face increasingly complex regulatory reporting, expected-credit-loss modelling, stress testing and early-warning requirements. Combining ICRA’s domain knowledge with a product platform can produce recurring software and implementation revenue. The accounting risk is equally clear. Research-and-analytics segment assets jumped materially, and acquisition value must be justified by cash flows rather than only consolidated revenue.
| Fintellix integration test | Evidence of success | Evidence of concern |
|---|---|---|
| Cross-selling | Existing ICRA clients adopt risk products | Pipeline claims without contracted revenue |
| Revenue quality | Recurring licences and support rise | Custom implementation dominates |
| Margin | Segment margin rebuilds after investment | Hiring and integration costs remain elevated |
| Cash conversion | Receivables and cash track profit | Growth consumes working capital |
| Product relevance | Regulatory platforms win repeat deployments | Rapid technology obsolescence |
Moody’s control is an advantage with related-party questions
Moody’s Investment Company India held 31.66% and Moody’s Singapore held 20.20% at March 2026, together giving the global group control. ICRA receives specialised analytical and technical support through a services agreement and earns material knowledge-services revenue from Moody’s entities.
This relationship supplies methods, brand credibility and access to global workflows. It also creates related-party dependence. Shareholders should review service charges, revenue concentration and transfer-pricing disclosures rather than assuming every group transaction is automatically favourable to minority investors. Control quality is valuable; independent board oversight remains necessary.
Regulation protects the franchise and raises the standard
Credit rating agencies operate under SEBI rules covering eligibility, conflicts, disclosures, surveillance and methodology. Regulation helps create demand and limits casual entry, but it also subjects the franchise to inspections, penalties and rule changes. The issuer-pays model contains an inherent conflict because the rated entity pays for the opinion used by investors.
The defence is governance: rating committees, analyst independence, published criteria, surveillance discipline and transparent default studies. Revenue growth should never be pursued by weakening standards. A lost mandate costs one fee; a compromised reputation can affect the entire platform. Investors should treat regulatory actions and rating withdrawals as core business evidence, not legal footnotes.
AI is opportunity and threat in the same line item
ICRA’s annual report says the analytics market is being reshaped by generative AI, automation and longer client decision cycles. Tools can accelerate data extraction, model validation and research production, improving analyst productivity. Fintellix also positions the group to sell technology rather than merely use it internally.
The threat is substitution. Clients may automate lower-value research work or demand price reductions when productivity improves. Proprietary data, domain judgement, model governance and regulatory accountability must remain difficult to replicate. The strongest outcome is AI augmenting scarce analysts while higher-value risk decisions stay with trusted experts; the weakest is revenue commoditising before cost savings arrive.
Balance-sheet optionality remains meaningful
At March 2026 the group reported consolidated assets of ₹1,486.10 crore and liabilities of ₹300.96 crore. More than ₹1,002 crore of assets were unallocated to the operating segments, reflecting substantial financial resources and corporate assets. That pool supported the Fintellix purchase without turning ICRA into a leveraged acquisition story.
| Consolidated balance-sheet item | 31 Mar 2026 | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Total assets | ₹1,486.10 Cr | Large relative to annual operating revenue |
| Total liabilities | ₹300.96 Cr | Conservative group structure |
| Total capital employed | ₹1,185.14 Cr | Includes substantial unallocated resources |
| Unallocable assets | ₹1,002.73 Cr | Cash/investment optionality, not operating profit |
| Promoter pledge in Gale snapshot | 0% | No dated pledge overhang |
Cash-rich service companies can appear less efficient on consolidated ROE because idle financial assets expand the denominator. That is not a reason to ignore capital allocation. The key test is whether acquisitions and distributions earn more than the safe return available on cash while preserving resilience.
Quality ratios are high, but acquisition returns matter
Gale’s dated snapshot recorded a 36.09% operating margin, 23.04% ROCE and 16.72% ROE. Five-year sales and profit CAGRs were 14.77% and 18.19%. Those numbers describe a high-quality service franchise, although the internal PE and PEG already recognise much of that quality.
| Internal quality evidence | 6 Aug 2026 snapshot | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Operating margin | 36.09% | Strong group-level economics |
| ROCE / five-year ROCE | 23.04% / 21.25% | Durable return on operating capital |
| ROE | 16.72% | Solid despite a cash-rich balance sheet |
| Sales CAGR, five years | 14.77% | Healthy pre- and post-acquisition growth base |
| Profit CAGR, five years | 18.19% | Profit historically outpaced sales |
| Dividend yield | 1.36% | Income is secondary to compounding |
The next return cycle depends on Fintellix. If the acquisition adds recurring software revenue and the analytics margin recovers, group capital productivity can improve. If returns on the purchase remain below the legacy ratings franchise, growth can dilute quality even while consolidated revenue rises.
The numbers
| Metric | Internal 6 Aug 2026 snapshot |
|---|---|
| Market capitalisation | ₹4,988 Cr |
| Snapshot price | ₹5,092.40 |
| P/E · price/book | 25.4× · 4.21× |
| PEG · EV/EBITDA | 1.40 · 16.08× |
| EPS (TTM) | ₹202.70 |
| Book value per share | ₹1,222.80 |
| ROE · ROCE | 16.72% · 23.04% |
| 52-week range | ₹4,712.50 – ₹6,734.00 |
Valuation reflects quality, not certainty
At 25.4 times snapshot earnings and 16.08 times EV/EBITDA, ICRA traded below some premium analytics peers but well above a cyclical business. Price to book of 4.21 times requires returns to stay healthy, while the 1.40 PEG rests on historical profit growth that may not repeat during integration.
The target model starts with the internal TTM EPS of ₹202.70. The bear case assumes the core franchise grows but analytics integration disappoints and the multiple compresses. The base case assumes ratings remain healthy and analytics margin improves gradually. The bull case requires strong debt-market activity, successful Fintellix cross-selling and higher group capital productivity.
| Scenario | EPS growth | Exit P/E | Business interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8% | 18× | Slower issuance and persistent analytics margin pressure |
| Base | 14% | 25× | Ratings compound and integration improves steadily |
| Bull | 20% | 32× | Both segments scale with strong cash conversion |
ICRA share price target 2026 to 2030
The outcomes are sensitivities rather than predictions. Starting on 6 August means the 2026 year-end row receives only 147/365 of one year’s assumed growth. Each following row adds a full year, applies the scenario P/E and rounds the displayed result to the nearest ₹5. This avoids pretending that a mid-year TTM EPS has twelve months left to compound before December.
Scenario warning: issuance volumes, regulation, reputation, AI substitution, acquisition execution and market multiples can all move outside this framework. The table is a decision aid, not a guaranteed path or personalised recommendation.
What would change the thesis
The case would strengthen if ratings revenue continued to grow with stable pricing, research-and-analytics margin recovered, Fintellix produced recurring product revenue and consolidated cash conversion remained clean. A rise in segment profit faster than segment revenue would demonstrate operating leverage after integration.
It would weaken if debt issuance slowed for several periods, a regulatory or rating-quality event damaged trust, Moody’s-related revenue became less favourable, or analytics growth required persistent cost increases. Large acquisition goodwill without improving cash returns would require rebuilding the valuation model rather than merely reducing one growth input.
| Quarterly or annual check | Why it matters | Preferred evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Ratings revenue and margin | Tests the legacy moat | Volume growth plus pricing discipline |
| Analytics segment margin | Measures integration quality | Profit grows faster than revenue |
| Fintellix order mix | Distinguishes products from projects | More recurring licences and support |
| Rated debt and issuer count | Tracks franchise scale | Broad-based mandates, not one category |
| Cash deployment | Determines group ROE | Disciplined acquisitions or distributions |
| Regulatory record | Protects reputation | Clean disclosures and surveillance discipline |
Should you buy ICRA at the current price?
ICRA has the ingredients of a durable compounder: a regulated reputation moat, high operating margins, a cash-rich balance sheet and an expanding analytics platform. The unresolved issue is the price and quality of diversification. FY26 showed excellent revenue growth, but analytics profit and consolidated PAT did not keep pace.
Investors should demand evidence that the acquisition adds recurring cash earnings rather than only scale. Existing holders can monitor segment margins, governance and capital deployment; prospective buyers can require a margin of safety for integration and reputational risk. Gale’s signed-in panel carries the current research classification, while paid members can view the accumulation band. Those tools do not replace diversification or regulated personal advice.
FAQ
What is the ICRA share price target for 2030?
Gale provides bear, base and bull outcomes from 2026 to 2030 in the signed-in table. Each value follows the disclosed EPS-growth and P/E assumptions rather than an assured single forecast.
How does ICRA make money?
The group earns from ratings and surveillance, ESG ratings, research, outsourced analytics, data services and risk-technology solutions. Ratings contributed about 56% of FY26 group revenue and research and analytics about 44%.
What does the Fintellix acquisition add?
Fintellix adds regulatory reporting, risk management, supervisory technology and advanced analytics products for banks, NBFCs and regulators. The investment case requires recurring revenue and recovering segment margin, not just consolidated sales.
Is ICRA controlled by Moody’s?
Yes. Two Moody’s promoter entities together held about 51.9% at March 2026, and Moody’s Corporation is the ultimate holding company. The affiliation adds capability and creates related-party oversight responsibilities.
What is ICRA’s biggest investment risk?
Reputation is the largest non-financial risk. A serious rating-quality or regulatory failure can damage the franchise, while poor acquisition execution can weaken returns even without a reputational event.
When are ICRA’s next results?
Check Gale’s results calendar and confirm the board-meeting date through ICRA’s exchange filing. Calendar estimates are not substitutes for a formal company announcement.
Related research
Sources and methodology
- ICRA FY26 annual report filed with NSE, including segment results, acquisition disclosures, shareholding and operating scale.
- ICRA audited FY26 consolidated and standalone results, approved on 21 May 2026.
- ICRA investor-relations presentation hub.
- ICRA official media-release hub, including the FY26 performance release.
- Screener.in consolidated financials for ICRA, captured in Gale’s approved internal research snapshot on 6 August 2026.
The annual-report figures are labelled FY26 and kept separate from Gale’s later market snapshot. Scenario arithmetic uses the internal TTM EPS and finite multiples; it does not convert company strategy into a guaranteed forecast.
This article is research and education, not personalised investment advice. Gale is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser. Price targets are scenario arithmetic, not promises. Do your own research and consult a registered adviser before acting.