Medanta (Global Health) Share Price Target 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030
- Market Cap
- ₹38,598 Cr
- Book Value
- ₹147
- Stock P/E
- 67.4
- Dividend Yield
- 0.03%
- ROE
- 15.2%
- ROCE
- 17.1%
- PEG Ratio
- 0.84
- EV/EBITDA
- 35.8
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 5 Aug 2026. Live price via Yahoo Finance.
Medanta share price today
Global Health (NSE: MEDANTA) operates the Medanta hospitals — flagship Gurugram plus a north-India network expanding through Lucknow, Patna and Noida — built by Dr Naresh Trehan around a simple thesis: tertiary-care depth (hearts, transplants, oncology, neuro) in cities where world-class treatment previously meant a flight. The model produces the sector’s signature economics as units mature: an 81% five-year profit CAGR as young hospitals cross breakeven and mature ones mint cash.
At 67.4×, our universe tags it wait — the scarcity premium on quality hospital beds is real, but so is the arithmetic: a PEG of 0.84 only helps if the ramp keeps ramping.
The maturation ladder
Hospital economics are a J-curve: a new unit burns for 2–3 years, breaks even, then compounds EBITDA for decades as case mix enriches toward complex procedures. Medanta’s ladder is deliberately staggered — Gurugram mature, Lucknow scaling fast, Patna climbing, Noida just opened — so consolidated numbers understate the mature-unit profitability still surfacing. North-India catchments (UP, Bihar) have the country’s worst bed density: demand is structural, not cyclical.
Watch-items: Noida’s ramp pace, payor mix (insurance penetration lifts realisations), regulatory pricing interventions (the sector’s recurring scare), and key-person continuity around the founder-clinician brand.
The numbers
From our research universe snapshot (5 Aug 2026):
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ₹38,598 Cr |
| P/E (TTM) | 67.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.8 |
| Operating margin | 20.9% |
| ROE / ROCE | 15.2% / 17.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.30 |
| Sales CAGR (5y) | 25.0% |
| Profit CAGR (5y) | 80.7% |
| Promoter holding | 33.0% |
| EPS (TTM) | ₹21.29 |
Medanta share price target 2026 to 2030
EPS base ₹21.29 (TTM). The 81% CAGR is J-curve math that must decelerate; scenarios do. Bear: ramps slow and pricing intervention lands — 12% growth, multiple at 38×. Base: units mature on schedule — 18% growth at 52×. Bull: case-mix enrichment plus new-bed announcements — 24% growth at 65×.
| Year | Bear (38×, +12%) | Base (52×, +18%) | Bull (65×, +24%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹906 | ₹1,305 | ₹1,715 |
| 2027 | ₹1,015 | ₹1,540 | ₹2,130 |
| 2028 | ₹1,135 | ₹1,820 | ₹2,640 |
| 2029 | ₹1,275 | ₹2,145 | ₹3,270 |
| 2030 | ₹1,425 | ₹2,535 | ₹4,055 |
From ₹1,435, the base case is ≈ +76% over four and a half years — and the bear case is essentially flat (−1%). Growth assets whose downside scenario still holds price are rare; that is what a staggered maturation ladder buys. The range below improves the odds further.
Reasons to own Medanta (at the right price)
- A hospital J-curve portfolio mid-climb — profits surface for years without new capex.
- Tertiary-care depth in India’s most under-bedded catchments.
- 81% profit CAGR shows the model working; PEG 0.84 says growth is fairly bought.
- Clinician-founder brand that recruits the specialists who bring the patients.
- Insurance penetration is a decade-long realisation tailwind.
The risks: 67× forgives no ramp delays, hospital pricing is a perennial regulatory target, 33% promoter holding is modest, and the brand’s founder-dependence is real.
Should you buy at the current price?
The live buy range below is for members — where the J-curve is bought, not chased.
FAQ
What is the Medanta share price target for 2030? Base case ≈ ₹2,535 (52× on 18% compounded growth), bear ≈ ₹1,425, bull ≈ ₹4,055. Arithmetic above.
Why is profit growing so much faster than revenue? Operating leverage: new hospitals cross breakeven and every incremental occupied bed drops largely to EBITDA. The 81% profit CAGR against 25% sales CAGR is that leverage surfacing.
What could break the story? A regulated cap on procedure pricing (periodically threatened), a stalled ramp at a new unit, or losing marquee clinical teams — hospitals are talent franchises wearing real estate.
When are Medanta’s next results? Track the exact date on our results calendar.
This article is research and education, not personalised investment advice. We are not SEBI-registered advisers. Price targets are scenario arithmetic, not promises. Do your own research and consult a registered adviser before acting.