Muthoot Finance Share Price Target 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030
- Market Cap
- ₹1,15,257 Cr
- Book Value
- ₹1,011
- Stock P/E
- 10.1
- Dividend Yield
- 1.05%
- ROE
- 30.9%
- ROCE
- 15.8%
- PEG Ratio
- 0.23
- EV/EBITDA
- 9.53
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 5 Aug 2026. Live price via Yahoo Finance.
Technical snapshot
EOD ·Muthoot Finance Ltd closed at ₹2,514.70 on 2 November 2026, up 4.4% on the day, 7.9% below its 50-day average, 39.4% below its 52-week high, with volume at 3.46× its 20-session average.
- RSI 14
- 45.3
- vs 50-day SMA
- -7.9%
- vs 200-day SMA
- -20.4%
- From 52-week high
- -39.4%
- Relative volume
- 3.46×
- 20-day return
- -7.4%
End-of-day prices from exchange-published files (NSE/BSE bhavcopy), updated after market close. Descriptive statistics, not investment advice.
What the exchange files show
NSE EOD ·Muthoot Finance Ltd settled 30.7% of its traded volume as delivery on 2 November 2026, against a median of 49.0% across 108 sessions since 29 May 2026, below the 44.6% median for liquid NSE shares that day.
NSE's sec_list file assigns Muthoot Finance Ltd no daily price band — the marking carried by securities in the derivatives segment.
- Delivery, latest
- 30.7%
- Delivery, 108-session median
- 49.0%
- Delivery range
- 26.1–71.5%
- Daily price band
- None (F&O)
- Close x volume, latest
- ₹534 cr
- Series
- EQ
Corporate actions
- 17 Apr 2026 — Interim Dividend - Rs 30 Per Share
Prices, delivery and the price band come from NSE's published end-of-day files (sec_bhavdata_full and sec_list), covering 108 sessions from 29 May 2026. Surveillance status, disclosed deals and corporate actions come from separate NSE feeds on their own schedules and are not bounded by that window. Descriptive exchange data, not investment advice. What delivery percentage does and does not tell you →
Muthoot Finance share price today
Muthoot Finance (NSE: MUTHOOTFIN) is India’s largest gold-loan company: 4,800+ branches holding 202 tonnes of household gold as collateral against a loan book that just crossed ₹1.9 lakh Cr. In FY26 its profit doubled to ₹10,607 Cr as gold prices surged and borrowing against jewellery boomed.
And yet the stock trades at 10 times earnings, a third below its 52-week high of ₹4,150. The market’s reasoning: windfall earnings deserve windfall multiples — low ones. This article examines whether that skepticism is priced correctly.
The business model, honestly stated
A customer walks in with jewellery; Muthoot lends about 70% of its value at 18–22% interest; the gold sits in the branch vault. If the customer defaults, the gold is auctioned — recovery is near-total. The collateral does the underwriting. That is why Muthoot’s return on assets runs near 7%, triple a good bank’s, on GNPA optics that overstate risk (a “bad” gold loan is still fully covered by the pledge).
The model’s superpower is counter-cyclicality: when households are stressed, gold lending grows. Its weakness is the mirror image: the loan book is a leveraged bet on the gold price — AUM inflates and deflates with the metal.
The FY26 numbers — the windfall year
From Screener.in, consolidated:
| Year | Revenue (₹ Cr) | Net profit (₹ Cr) | EPS (₹) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | 15,062 | 4,468 | 107.71 |
| FY25 | 20,214 | 5,352 | 132.84 |
| FY26 | 31,209 | 10,607 | 263.79 |
| TTM | 33,431 | 11,457 | 283.28 |
Profit +98% in FY26, and the ten-year record behind it is 29% profit CAGR with ROE now at 31%. The Q1 FY27 update keeps the momentum: loan AUM ₹1.91 lakh Cr, up 43% year-on-year, quarterly profit up 43%.
Quarterly review
| Quarter | Net profit (₹ Cr) | EPS (₹) |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2025 | 2,412 | 60.29 |
| Dec 2025 | 2,823 | 69.84 |
| Mar 2026 | 3,397 | 83.43 |
| Jun 2026 | 2,825 | 69.72 |
June profit rose 43% year-on-year. Sequential dips against the March quarter are seasonal in gold lending — March is the recovery-and-renewal peak.
Balance sheet review
- Borrowings of ₹1.52 lakh Cr against ₹39,130 Cr of equity — leverage near 4×, conservative for an NBFC whose book is fully collateralised by liquid gold.
- Return on assets ≈ 7% — the highest of any large listed lender in India.
- The buffer beneath it all: loans written at ~70% of gold value mean the metal must fall ~30% and customers must default before principal is touched.
Shareholding review — a promoter who never sells
| Holder | Jun 2026 |
|---|---|
| Promoters (George family) | 73.35% |
| FIIs | 11.61% |
| DIIs | 10.75% |
| Public | 4.29% |
Promoter holding has been exactly 73.35% for years — no pledging, no selling, no creeping dilution. Succession was just formalised without drama: Alexander George takes over as MD from October 2026 with a professional CEO alongside. Family-run is a risk when the family is erratic; this one has run the same playbook for three decades.
The bear case, taken seriously
The multiple is 10× because the market sees three things. One: FY26 earnings ride a gold-price surge — if gold corrects 20%, AUM growth reverses and the earnings base deflates. Two: regulation — the RBI has tightened gold-lending norms before (LTV caps, cash-disbursal limits, auction rules) and a stricter regime would compress growth. Three: competition — banks and large NBFCs keep re-entering gold loans whenever yields look attractive.
All three are real. The counterweights: Muthoot has compounded through every gold cycle since listing (2011 crash included); regulation historically hurt smaller, looser competitors more than the disciplined leader; and competitors keep discovering that vaulting and auctioning physical gold at 4,800 locations is an operational moat, not a spreadsheet product.
Muthoot Finance share price target 2026 to 2030
The honest way to model a windfall base: assume the windfall does not repeat. EPS base ₹283 (TTM). Bear: gold corrects and EPS shrinks 8% a year at 7×. Base: 8% growth at 10× — dramatically below the 43% current run-rate, treating FY26 as the new plateau rather than the new trend. Bull: 15% growth at 13× if gold stays strong and non-gold lending (housing, microfinance arms) scales.
| Year | Bear (7×, −8%) | Base (10×, +8%) | Bull (13×, +15%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹2,600 | ₹3,000 | ₹3,400 |
| 2027 | ₹2,300 | ₹3,250 | ₹3,900 |
| 2028 | ₹2,000 | ₹3,450 | ₹4,600 |
| 2029 | ₹1,700 | ₹3,650 | ₹5,450 |
| 2030 | ₹1,420 | ₹3,850 | ₹6,400 |
The base case — which needs less than a fifth of the current growth rate — returns roughly +34% by 2030 plus dividends. The bull case is a gold-supercycle continuation trade. The bear case is what a 40% earnings unwind at a compressed multiple looks like; size positions with that column in view, because gold does occasionally do that.
Reasons to own Muthoot Finance
- ROA ≈ 7%, ROE 31% — the most profitable large lending model in India.
- 10× earnings with PEG 0.23 — priced as a windfall, growing like a franchise (AUM +43%).
- Collateralised book: 202 tonnes of gold means credit losses are an operational detail, not a solvency question.
- Promoter at 73.35%, zero pledge, orderly succession — three decades of the same conservative playbook.
- Structural demand: gold-backed credit is how a jewellery-owning nation borrows; formalisation keeps shifting share from moneylenders to Muthoot.
- A stock one-third below its high while quarterly profit grows 43%.
What to weigh at the current price
The low earnings multiple reflects a real question: is the ₹1.9 lakh Cr loan book a durable new plateau or the product of an exceptional gold-price cycle? Muthoot’s operating moat and collateral cushion sit on one side; gold-price, regulatory and competitive risks sit on the other.
FAQ
What is the Muthoot Finance share price target for 2030? Base case ≈ ₹3,850 (10× on 8% EPS growth from the elevated FY26 base), bear ≈ ₹1,420 if gold unwinds, bull ≈ ₹6,400. Arithmetic above.
Why is Muthoot Finance so cheap at 10× earnings? Because FY26 profit doubled on a gold-price surge, and markets refuse to pay full multiples for commodity-linked windfalls. The debate is whether ₹1.9 lakh Cr of AUM is a windfall or a new plateau.
What happens to Muthoot if gold prices fall? AUM and earnings compress — that is the bear column above. Principal stays protected by the ~30% collateral cushion; growth does not.
Is Muthoot Finance safe on asset quality? Its loans are fully backed by vaulted gold at ~70% loan-to-value. Reported NPA optics overstate true risk because auctions recover close to the full dues.
When are Muthoot Finance’s next results? Q2 FY27 would ordinarily be expected around mid-November 2026; confirm the announced date through the results calendar and exchange filing.
This article is research and education, not personalised investment advice. We are not SEBI-registered advisers. Price targets are scenario arithmetic, not promises — gold prices, regulation and market shocks can push prices outside every band shown. Do your own research and consult a registered adviser before acting.