Timken India Share Price Target 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030
- Market Cap
- ₹24,310 Cr
- Book Value
- ₹395
- Stock P/E
- 59.4
- Dividend Yield
- 0.08%
- ROE
- 13.7%
- ROCE
- 18.3%
- PEG Ratio
- 2.62
- EV/EBITDA
- 36.0
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 5 Aug 2026. Live price via Yahoo Finance.
Timken India share price today
Timken India (NSE: TIMKEN) makes the bearings that carry the heaviest loads: tapered roller bearings for railway wagons and locomotives, trucks, and process industries — a technology the American parent invented in 1898 and still leads. The India entity is doubly strategic: the domestic franchise rides Indian rail’s wagon-building boom and freight-corridor buildout, while the plants serve as a global export hub inside Timken’s world network.
The numbers show a franchise mid-investment: 22.7% five-year profit CAGR, though TTM growth is flat with the freight cycle (our flag), and ROCE of 18.3% carries new-capacity absorption. At 59.4×, our universe tags it wait — a structural rail story at a price that assumes the cycle’s next leg.
Rail’s bearing annuity
Every wagon in India’s record rolling-stock orders carries taper bearings, every one wears out on schedule, and the certified-vendor list is short — demand is policy-visible for a decade of freight-corridor and Vande Bharat programs. The aftermarket (railways re-bearing wagons perpetually) is the annuity beneath the OEM cycle. Exports balance the mix: parent-directed production for global markets uses Indian cost curves against developed-market pricing.
Watch-items: wagon-order execution by railways (the demand pipe), the freight cycle (currently flat — the flagged drag), parent-related export transfer pricing, and new-capacity utilisation ramping.
The numbers
From our research universe snapshot (5 Aug 2026):
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ₹24,310 Cr |
| P/E (TTM) | 59.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 36.0 |
| Operating margin | 18.1% |
| ROE / ROCE | 13.7% / 18.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.00 |
| Sales CAGR (5y) | 19.4% |
| Profit CAGR (5y) | 22.7% |
| Promoter holding | 51.1% |
| EPS (TTM) | ₹54.41 |
Timken India share price target 2026 to 2030
EPS base ₹54.41 (TTM). Bear: freight stays flat, capacity digests slowly — 8% growth, multiple at 34×. Base: rail orders convert and exports ramp — 14% growth at 46×. Bull: freight-corridor era plus export-hub scaling — 19% growth at 58×.
| Year | Bear (34×, +8%) | Base (46×, +14%) | Bull (58×, +19%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹2,000 | ₹2,855 | ₹3,755 |
| 2027 | ₹2,160 | ₹3,255 | ₹4,470 |
| 2028 | ₹2,330 | ₹3,710 | ₹5,320 |
| 2029 | ₹2,515 | ₹4,225 | ₹6,330 |
| 2030 | ₹2,720 | ₹4,820 | ₹7,530 |
From ₹3,232, the base case is ≈ +49% over four and a half years; the bear is −16%. Rail-policy visibility earns bearings a premium — the range below declines to pay the whole premium upfront.
Reasons to own Timken India (at the right price)
- Rail’s bearing franchise — record wagon orders all carry its product.
- The aftermarket re-bearing annuity runs beneath every OEM cycle.
- Export-hub status inside the parent’s global network adds a second engine.
- Zero debt through a capacity-investment phase.
- Certified-vendor scarcity in safety-critical rail components.
The risks: the freight cycle is currently flat (the flagged TTM drag), 59× needs the next demand leg to arrive on time, and MNC transfer-pricing on exports warrants the standing minority watch.
Should you buy at the current price?
The live buy range below is for members — the rail annuity at a fair fare.
FAQ
What is the Timken India share price target for 2030? Base case ≈ ₹4,820 (46× on 14% compounded growth), bear ≈ ₹2,720, bull ≈ ₹7,530. Arithmetic above.
Why tapered roller bearings specifically? They handle combined radial and axial loads — axles, gearboxes, heavy transmissions — the geometry Timken invented and still leads globally. Rail wagons are their natural habitat.
What is the export-hub angle? The parent routes global production through Indian plants for cost advantage — export revenue diversifies domestic cycles, at margins set by intra-group pricing (worth watching, as with all MNC hubs).
When are Timken India’s next results? Track the exact date on our results calendar.
This article is research and education, not personalised investment advice. We are not SEBI-registered advisers. Price targets are scenario arithmetic, not promises. Do your own research and consult a registered adviser before acting.