Vedanta Share Price Target 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030

Vedanta share price today

Vedanta is a portfolio of aluminium, zinc, silver, oil and gas, iron ore, steel, power and other assets. That diversification does not remove commodity risk; it combines several commodity cycles inside a complex group structure.

The share looks inexpensive at about 10× trailing earnings and offers a headline 12% dividend yield. Neither number is stable. Metal prices, one-off income, capital expenditure and the parent’s funding needs can change earnings and dividends much faster than a normal consumer company.

Q1 FY27 combined better operations with significant other income

Consolidated, ₹ crore	Jun 2025	Sep 2025	Dec 2025	Mar 2026	Jun 2026
Sales	15,754	18,747	21,337	24,609	24,205
Operating profit	4,276	4,915	6,521	7,559	8,501
OPM	27%	26%	31%	31%	35%
Other income	2,737	1,248	4,426	5,503	3,166
Net profit	4,457	3,479	7,807	9,352	7,918

The margin improvement to 35% is the strongest part of the June result. Reported profit still contains ₹3,166 crore of other income, so a normalised valuation should begin with segment EBITDA and sustainable taxes, interest and minority interests—not just EPS.

Comparability changed after business restructuring

Consolidated, ₹ crore	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26
Sales	1,32,732	1,47,308	1,43,727	62,717	78,437
Operating margin	34%	24%	22%	29%	30%
Net profit	23,710	14,503	7,539	20,535	25,096

The sharp FY25 revenue reset reflects changes in reporting perimeter as well as the cycle. Straight CAGRs across the break are not useful. Segment volumes, cost curves and attributable cash flow are more informative.

Dividend yield is a cash-allocation decision

A high dividend can be attractive when generated after maintenance and growth capex. It is less attractive when the listed company borrows or underinvests so cash can move to a leveraged parent. Vedanta’s payout has often exceeded reported profit, which is why dividend yield should be treated as variable, not contractual.

The proposed demerger can make assets easier to value and give shareholders direct exposure to different commodities. It does not create operating cash by itself, and standalone entities may carry different debt, dividend and cyclicality.

A sum-of-the-parts is only as good as the debt allocation

Zinc and silver usually deserve different multiples from aluminium, oil and gas, steel or power. A demerger can reveal that difference, but analysts often make a mistake: they value each asset at a peer multiple and subtract too little debt, parent cost or minority interest. Hindustan Zinc cash does not all belong to Vedanta shareholders, and operating-company cash may be upstreamed as dividends.

Our sum-of-the-parts cross-check applies separate mid-cycle EBITDA assumptions, subtracts attributable net debt and uses a holding/governance discount where cash allocation remains complex. We do not add the present dividend yield to the bull target; dividends are cash leaving the company and reduce future book value.

Promoter ownership fell from 56.38% in March 2026 to 54.72% in June, while FII ownership rose to 15.78%. The change accompanied encumbrance and financing disclosures at the promoter group. It does not change mine quality, but it raises the importance of tracking any pledge, security interest or refinancing that can influence listed-company decisions.

The numbers

Metric	Screener snapshot
Market capitalisation	₹1.11 lakh Cr
P/E · price/book	10.1 · 2.24
Book value per share	₹127
ROE · ROCE	38.2% · 16.1%
Dividend yield	12.0%
52-week range	₹152 – ₹361

High ROE is helped by leverage and heavy payouts that reduce equity. ROCE is the more conservative measure of operating quality, and even it will move with metal prices.

The key sensitivities behind the targets

Aluminium and zinc prices, alumina and coal costs, oil production and currency can move EBITDA in opposite directions. The base case therefore uses mid-cycle prices rather than the latest spot quote. The bear case combines lower metal prices with a dividend cut; the bull case combines volume expansion and cost reduction while still allowing normal commodity volatility.

The target table excludes dividends so readers can add only the cash actually received. This prevents the same earnings from being counted twice—as a high valuation and again as an assumed payout.

Vedanta share price target 2026 to 2030

The bear case assumes a metal downcycle and dividend reduction. The base case uses mid-cycle commodity prices and gradual volume growth. The bull case requires successful expansions, lower costs, sensible debt allocation and a demerger that improves rather than fragments capital discipline. Targets exclude dividends.

What would change our mind

Net debt: falling debt after dividends and capex is much stronger evidence than a temporary ratio improvement at peak commodity prices.

Aluminium cost curve: domestic alumina, coal linkage and power cost determine whether higher volumes actually raise free cash flow.

Dividend coverage: payouts should be covered by attributable free cash flow, not funded through new borrowing.

Promoter encumbrance: pledged or encumbered shares and parent refinancing can affect listed-company capital allocation.

Should you buy at the current price?

Vedanta can deliver substantial cash in a favourable cycle, but it is not a bond with a 12% coupon. We prefer buying below mid-cycle value and assuming a lower dividend than the screen displays. The member panel shows our current range.

FAQ

What is Vedanta’s target for 2030? The signed-in table provides bear, base and bull prices. Dividends are excluded because future payouts are uncertain.

Is Vedanta’s dividend safe? It is not guaranteed. Commodity prices, capex, debt and parent liquidity all affect the board’s capacity to pay.

Why is Vedanta’s P/E low? Cyclical earnings can be highest when a commodity stock looks cheapest. One-off other income also affects trailing profit.

Will the demerger unlock value? It may improve transparency, but value depends on debt allocation, governance and each business’s cash generation.

Source: Screener consolidated financials, checked 10 August 2026, and company filings linked there.

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This article is research and education, not personalised investment advice. We are not SEBI-registered advisers. Price targets are scenario arithmetic, not promises. Do your own research and consult a registered adviser before acting.