Waaree Energies Share Price Target 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030
- Market Cap
- ₹77,549 Cr
- Book Value
- ₹502
- Stock P/E
- 19.3
- Dividend Yield
- 0.07%
- ROE
- 32.8%
- ROCE
- 38.8%
- PEG Ratio
- 0.19
- EV/EBITDA
- 10.5
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 5 Aug 2026. Live price via Yahoo Finance.
Waaree Energies share price today
Waaree Energies (NSE: WAAREEENER) is the largest solar module manufacturer outside China — 12 GW of installed capacity across five Indian plants plus a US facility. In FY26 it grew sales 84% and profit 101%. It trades at 19 times earnings with a PEG of 0.19.
Hyper-growth at a value multiple only happens when the market doubts the growth’s durability. With Waaree the doubt has a specific name — policy — and this article takes it as seriously as the numbers deserve.
Why this business exists at this scale
Indian solar manufacturing is a created industry: ALMM rules (an approved-manufacturer list that excludes Chinese modules from most Indian projects), basic customs duty on imports, PLI subsidies, and US tariffs on Chinese-linked supply chains. Inside those walls, Waaree is the scale leader with the export beachhead — its US plant sells into a market that pays premium prices for non-Chinese modules.
The bear’s rejoinder writes itself: profits granted by policy can be repealed by policy. China’s module overcapacity is so extreme that world prices sit below Indian cash costs — remove the walls and margins halve. That is why 100% three-year profit CAGR trades at 19×.
The numbers
From Screener.in, consolidated:
| Year | Sales (₹ Cr) | OPM | Net profit (₹ Cr) | EPS (₹) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | 11,398 | 14% | 1,274 | 62.76 |
| FY25 | 14,444 | 19% | 1,928 | 65.00 |
| FY26 | 26,537 | 22% | 3,884 | 129.02 |
| TTM | 30,043 | 21% | 4,003 | 132.68 |
Sales up 84% in FY26 with margins expanding — backward integration into solar cells (rather than assembling imported ones) is doing the margin work. ROCE of 39% on a manufacturing business is exceptional by any standard.
Quarterly review
| Quarter | Sales (₹ Cr) | OPM | Net profit | EPS (₹) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2025 | 6,066 | 23% | 878 | 29.29 |
| Dec 2025 | 7,565 | 25% | 1,107 | 36.94 |
| Mar 2026 | 8,480 | 19% | 1,126 | 36.89 |
| Jun 2026 | 7,932 | 18% | 892 | 29.56 |
June profit rose 15% year-on-year but dipped sequentially with margin easing to 18% — module prices soften as Indian capacity (everyone is building) comes online. Order flow continues: a 740 MW supply order landed on 1 August, and a new subsidiary for green hydrogen/ammonia was incorporated the same week. Growth is not the question; the price of growth is.
Balance sheet and cash flow — read this part carefully
- Equity ₹14,438 Cr, borrowings just ₹3,213 Cr (D/E 0.22) — the IPO war chest funds the buildout, not debt.
- Fixed assets + capex-in-progress have tripled in two years (₹10,800 Cr combined) — cells, wafer plans, the US fab, batteries and electrolyser ventures.
- FY26 free cash flow: negative ₹3,209 Cr. Operating cash conversion fell to 47% as working capital and capex swallowed profits. This is what an aggressive buildout looks like — acceptable while growth delivers, dangerous if the cycle turns mid-spend.
Shareholding review — the register is upgrading
| Holder | Mar 2025 | Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Promoters | 64.31% | 64.12% |
| FIIs | 0.70% | 8.57% |
| DIIs | 2.46% | 4.08% |
| Public | 32.53% | 23.23% |
Since listing (October 2024), foreign institutions have gone from nearly nothing to 8.6% — buying, quarter after quarter, from exiting IPO retail. A 30%-off-the-high price with institutions accumulating is a pattern worth respecting.
Waaree Energies share price target 2026 to 2030
EPS base ₹132.68 (TTM). The scenarios must be wider than usual because the driver is policy, not execution. Bear: protection cracks or Indian oversupply bites — EPS shrinks 10% a year at 10×. Base: 15% growth at 18× (capacity ramp offsets price declines). Bull: 25% growth at 24× (US fab + cells + storage scale on schedule).
| Year | Bear (10×, −10%) | Base (18×, +15%) | Bull (24×, +25%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹2,450 | ₹2,900 | ₹3,350 |
| 2027 | ₹2,100 | ₹3,300 | ₹4,200 |
| 2028 | ₹1,750 | ₹3,600 | ₹5,250 |
| 2029 | ₹1,300 | ₹3,900 | ₹6,450 |
| 2030 | ₹870 | ₹4,180 | ₹7,770 |
That bear column — a two-thirds loss — is not decoration. It is what happened to solar manufacturers worldwide every time supply outran protection. The base case returns ~55% by 2030 on assumptions well below the current run-rate. This is a position-sizing stock: the expected value is attractive, the tail is real, and the tail decides how much you own, not whether the story is good.
Reasons to own Waaree Energies
- Largest non-Chinese module maker on earth — the strategic asset every de-risking supply chain needs.
- 84% sales growth, 39% ROCE, 33% ROE — hyper-growth with genuine capital efficiency.
- PEG 0.19 — the market charges almost nothing for the growth because it doubts the policy.
- Backward integration (cells, then wafers) converting policy protection into structural cost position.
- US manufacturing footprint — the one hedge that works if Indian policy softens.
- FIIs accumulating relentlessly since listing while the price consolidates.
Risks, plainly ranked: policy reversal (ALMM dilution, duty cuts) > Indian oversupply compressing margins (already visible: OPM 25%→18% in two quarters) > negative FCF during the buildout > technology shifts (perovskite, etc.) > promoter-group related-party breadth (the listed EPC arm, group ventures).
Should you buy at the current price?
The live buy range below is for members — the exact accumulation zone, updated as our view changes.
FAQ
What is the Waaree Energies share price target for 2030? Base case ≈ ₹4,180 (18× on 15% EPS growth), bear ≈ ₹870 if the policy walls crack, bull ≈ ₹7,770. Arithmetic shown above.
Why is Waaree Energies cheap at 19× despite 100% profit growth? Because its margins exist inside policy protection (ALMM, duties, US tariffs). Markets refuse to capitalise policy-granted profits at growth multiples — reasonably.
Is Waaree Energies profitable without subsidies? It is profitable inside the current tariff/ALMM framework; at open-market Chinese module prices, industry margins would compress severely. That gap is the entire bear case.
Who owns Waaree Energies? Promoters hold 64.1%; FIIs have built an 8.6% stake since the October 2024 listing while IPO-era retail has reduced.
When are Waaree’s next results? Q2 FY27 lands in late October 2026 — track it on our results calendar.
This article is research and education, not personalised investment advice. We are not SEBI-registered advisers. Price targets are scenario arithmetic, not promises — policy, commodity and market shocks can push prices outside every band shown, and in this stock the bands are wide by design. Do your own research and consult a registered adviser before acting.